Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 346 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Dec 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.

The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 12/0035Z from Region 3156 (N28W66). There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (13 Dec, 14 Dec, 15 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 510 km/s at 12/1521Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 12/0822Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 11/2218Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 250 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (13 Dec) and quiet levels on days two and three (14 Dec, 15 Dec).

III. Event probabilities 13 Dec-15 Dec
Class M 20/20/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 05/05/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Dec 151
Predicted 13 Dec-15 Dec 150/146/144
90 Day Mean 12 Dec 132

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Dec 007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Dec 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Dec-15 Dec 006/006-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Dec-15 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/20/20

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