Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 345 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Dec 2022
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 11/1140Z from Region 3153 (S17W59). There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (12 Dec, 13 Dec, 14 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 531 km/s at 11/1753Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 11/1355Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 11/1352Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 168 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (12 Dec, 13 Dec, 14
Dec).
III. Event probabilities 12 Dec-14 Dec
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 05/05/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Dec 148
Predicted 12 Dec-14 Dec 145/140/130
90 Day Mean 11 Dec 132
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Dec 006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Dec 009/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Dec-14 Dec 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Dec-14 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/20/20
space weather
