Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 343 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Dec 2022
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at 09/1413Z. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (10 Dec, 11 Dec, 12 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 603 km/s at 08/2128Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 09/1749Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 09/0933Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 139 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (10 Dec) and quiet levels on days two and three (11 Dec, 12 Dec).
III. Event probabilities 10 Dec-12 Dec
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Dec 149
Predicted 10 Dec-12 Dec 145/145/140
90 Day Mean 09 Dec 132
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Dec 009/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Dec 011/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Dec-12 Dec 008/008-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Dec-12 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/20/20
Space Weather
