Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 342 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Dec 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.

The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 08/0603Z from Region 3157 (N16E07). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (09 Dec, 10 Dec, 11 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 610 km/s at 08/1636Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 08/0944Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 07/2213Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 139 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and three (09 Dec, 11 Dec) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (10 Dec).

III. Event probabilities 09 Dec-11 Dec
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Dec 143
Predicted 09 Dec-11 Dec 140/140/140
90 Day Mean 08 Dec 132

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Dec 009/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Dec 010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Dec-11 Dec 007/008-008/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Dec-11 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/15/10
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/20
Major-severe storm 30/20/20

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