Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 34 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Feb 2023
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 03/0249Z from Region 3204 (N24, L=030). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low on days one, two, and three (04 Feb, 05 Feb, 06 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 468 km/s at 02/2229Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 03/1747Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 03/1412Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 144 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (04 Feb, 05 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (06 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 04 Feb-06 Feb
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Feb 135
Predicted 04 Feb-06 Feb 140/140/145
90 Day Mean 03 Feb 152
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Feb 002/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Feb 009/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Feb-06 Feb 005/005-006/005-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Feb-06 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/25
Minor Storm 01/01/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/30
Major-severe storm 10/10/35
space weather
