Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 338 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Dec 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 04/1240Z from Region 3153 (S17E33). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (05 Dec, 06 Dec, 07 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 544 km/s at 04/1247Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 04/1236Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 04/1336Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 9706 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (05 Dec), quiet levels on day two (06 Dec) and quiet to active levels on day three (07 Dec).

III. Event probabilities 05 Dec-07 Dec
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Dec 144
Predicted 05 Dec-07 Dec 145/145/143
90 Day Mean 04 Dec 131

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Dec 007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Dec 011/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Dec-07 Dec 008/008-006/005-009/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Dec-07 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/10/30
Minor Storm 05/01/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/30
Major-severe storm 25/20/40

Space weather