Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 335 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Dec 2022
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 01/0721Z from Region 3152 (N28W38). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (02 Dec, 03 Dec, 04 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 685 km/s at 01/0159Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 30/2346Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 01/0905Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3825 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (02 Dec, 04 Dec) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (03 Dec).
III. Event probabilities 02 Dec-04 Dec
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Dec 119
Predicted 02 Dec-04 Dec 120/125/130
90 Day Mean 01 Dec 131
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Nov 017/023
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Dec 021/030
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Dec-04 Dec 014/020-011/010-013/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Dec-04 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/25/40
Minor Storm 20/10/20
Major-severe storm 05/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/10
Minor Storm 30/25/25
Major-severe storm 50/35/60
space weather
