Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 334 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Nov 2022
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 30/1617Z from Region 3151 (S16W0*). There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (01 Dec, 02 Dec, 03 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 708 km/s at 30/1858Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 30/1826Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 30/1732Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 9440 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (01 Dec), quiet to active levels on day two (02 Dec) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (03 Dec).
III. Event probabilities 01 Dec-03 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Nov 111
Predicted 01 Dec-03 Dec 115/115/120
90 Day Mean 30 Nov 131
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Nov 020/025
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Nov 019/026
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Dec-03 Dec 017/025-014/020-011/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Dec-03 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/35/25
Minor Storm 25/20/10
Major-severe storm 05/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor Storm 25/30/25
Major-severe storm 60/50/35
Space weather
