- Status Report
- Feb 7, 2023
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 330 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Nov 2022
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (27 Nov, 28 Nov, 29 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 642 km/s at 26/1855Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 26/1311Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 25/2127Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 329 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (27 Nov), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (28 Nov) and quiet to active levels on day three (29 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 27 Nov-29 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Nov 107
Predicted 27 Nov-29 Nov 108/105/110
90 Day Mean 26 Nov 131
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Nov 015/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Nov 012/017
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Nov-29 Nov 014/018-011/010-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Nov-29 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 15/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 50/30/45