Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 33 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Feb 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.

The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 01/2248Z from Region 3204 (N24W86). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low on days one, two, and three (03 Feb, 04 Feb, 05 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 434 km/s at 02/1554Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 01/2134Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 01/2157Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 142 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (03 Feb, 04 Feb, 05 Feb).

III. Event probabilities 03 Feb-05 Feb
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Feb 135
Predicted 03 Feb-05 Feb 135/140/140
90 Day Mean 02 Feb 152

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Feb 003/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Feb 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Feb-05 Feb 007/008-005/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Feb-05 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/10/10
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 25/10/10

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