Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 329 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Nov 2022
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 25/0722Z from Region 3149 (N22W45). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (26 Nov, 27 Nov, 28 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 567 km/s at 25/1712Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 24/2344Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at 25/0735Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 133 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (26 Nov), unsettled to active levels on day two (27 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (28 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 26 Nov-28 Nov
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Nov 109
Predicted 26 Nov-28 Nov 110/110/108
90 Day Mean 25 Nov 133
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Nov 006/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Nov 014/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Nov-28 Nov 012/012-014/018-011/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Nov-28 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/35/20
Minor Storm 10/15/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/15
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 45/50/30
Space weather
