Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 328 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Nov 2022
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (25 Nov, 26 Nov, 27 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 359 km/s at 24/2024Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 24/2017Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 24/1957Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 138 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (25 Nov, 26 Nov) and unsettled to active levels on day three (27 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 25 Nov-27 Nov
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Nov 110
Predicted 25 Nov-27 Nov 110/110/110
90 Day Mean 24 Nov 133
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Nov 001/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Nov 007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Nov-27 Nov 013/015-012/012-014/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Nov-27 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/35/35
Minor Storm 15/10/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/10
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 50/45/50
Space weather
