Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 326 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Nov 2022
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at 22/0727Z from Region 3151 (S19E05). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (23 Nov, 24 Nov, 25 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 411 km/s at 21/2115Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 22/0631Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at 21/2212Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 304 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (23 Nov, 24 Nov, 25 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 23 Nov-25 Nov
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Nov 116
Predicted 23 Nov-25 Nov 118/118/118
90 Day Mean 22 Nov 133
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Nov 008/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Nov 005/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Nov-25 Nov 008/010-008/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Nov-25 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 30/30/25
space weather
