Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 322 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Nov 2022
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 18/0914Z. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (19 Nov, 20 Nov, 21 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 474 km/s at 18/0030Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 18/1833Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 18/1719Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 508 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and two (19 Nov, 20 Nov) and quiet to active levels on day three (21 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 19 Nov-21 Nov
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Nov 116
Predicted 19 Nov-21 Nov 115/115/115
90 Day Mean 18 Nov 133
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Nov 001/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Nov 003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Nov-21 Nov 014/020-021/028-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Nov-21 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/40/30
Minor Storm 30/35/15
Major-severe storm 10/15/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/05/15
Minor Storm 25/20/30
Major-severe storm 65/75/45
Space weather
