Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 320 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Nov 2022
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 16/0538Z from Region 3140 (N23W89). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (17 Nov) and likely to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day two (18 Nov) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day three (19 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 402 km/s at 15/2103Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 15/2106Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 15/2224Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 342 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (17 Nov), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (18 Nov) and quiet to active levels on day three (19 Nov). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (17 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 17 Nov-19 Nov
Class M 35/25/05
Class X 10/05/01
Proton 10/05/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Nov 133
Predicted 17 Nov-19 Nov 133/125/122
90 Day Mean 16 Nov 132
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Nov 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Nov 002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Nov-19 Nov 006/005-009/010-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Nov-19 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/25/35
Minor Storm 01/10/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/30/30
Major-severe storm 20/40/50
Space Weather
