Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 32 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Feb 2023
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 01/1801Z. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (02 Feb, 03 Feb, 04 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 484 km/s at 01/0110Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 01/1823Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 01/1756Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 708 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (02 Feb) and quiet levels on days two and three (03 Feb, 04 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 02 Feb-04 Feb
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Feb 134
Predicted 02 Feb-04 Feb 135/135/140
90 Day Mean 01 Feb 152
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Jan 006/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Feb 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Feb-04 Feb 007/010-006/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Feb-04 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/10/10
Minor Storm 10/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/20/20
Major-severe storm 40/10/10
Space weather
