Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 319 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Nov 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours.

The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 15/0251Z from Region 3140 (N25W76). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (16 Nov, 17 Nov) and likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day three (18 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 475 km/s at 15/0555Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 14/2119Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 15/0414Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 414 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (16 Nov, 18 Nov) and quiet levels on day two (17 Nov). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one and two (16 Nov, 17 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 16 Nov-18 Nov
Class M 35/30/20
Class X 10/10/05
Proton 10/10/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Nov 134
Predicted 16 Nov-18 Nov 130/126/120
90 Day Mean 15 Nov 132

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Nov 003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Nov 003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Nov-18 Nov 008/008-006/005-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Nov-18 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/15/25
Minor Storm 05/01/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/25/30
Major-severe storm 30/20/35

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