Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 317 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Nov 2022
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 13/0621Z from Region 3141 (N14W40). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (14 Nov, 15 Nov, 16 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 529 km/s at 13/2020Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 12/2225Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 13/1101Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 392 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (14 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (15 Nov, 16 Nov). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (14 Nov, 15 Nov, 16 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 14 Nov-16 Nov
Class M 35/35/35
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Nov 137
Predicted 14 Nov-16 Nov 135/135/120
90 Day Mean 13 Nov 132
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Nov 003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Nov 007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Nov-16 Nov 005/005-008/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Nov-16 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/25/25
Minor Storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/30/30
Major-severe storm 20/30/30
Space weather
