Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 316 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Nov 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours.

The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 12/0018Z from Region 3141 (N15W27). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (13 Nov, 14 Nov, 15 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 500 km/s at 12/1810Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 11/2228Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 11/2126Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 137 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (13 Nov, 14 Nov, 15 Nov). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (13 Nov, 14 Nov, 15 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 13 Nov-15 Nov
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Nov 138
Predicted 13 Nov-15 Nov 140/130/125
90 Day Mean 12 Nov 132

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Nov 009/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Nov 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Nov-15 Nov 009/008-007/005-009/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Nov-15 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/25
Minor Storm 05/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/30
Major-severe storm 25/20/30

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