Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 315 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Nov 2022
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 11/0714Z from Region 3141 (N14W14). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (12 Nov, 13 Nov, 14 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 433 km/s at 11/2042Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 11/1901Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 11/1332Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1135 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (12 Nov) and quiet levels on days two and three (13 Nov, 14 Nov). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (12 Nov, 13 Nov, 14 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 12 Nov-14 Nov
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Nov 138
Predicted 12 Nov-14 Nov 140/140/130
90 Day Mean 11 Nov 132
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Nov 002/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Nov 009/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Nov-14 Nov 012/012-005/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Nov-14 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/15/15
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/25/25
Major-severe storm 30/20/20
Space Weather
