Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 311 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Nov 2022
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M5 event observed at 07/0011Z from Region 3141 (N14E39). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (08 Nov, 09 Nov, 10 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 429 km/s at 07/1603Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 07/1655Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -14 nT at 07/1658Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 9398 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (08 Nov, 09 Nov, 10 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 08 Nov-10 Nov
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Nov 135
Predicted 08 Nov-10 Nov 135/130/130
90 Day Mean 07 Nov 131
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Nov 003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Nov 016/022
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Nov-10 Nov 011/012-010/012-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Nov-10 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/35/35
Minor Storm 10/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 45/45/45
Space weather
