Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 308 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Nov 2022
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 04/0744Z. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (05 Nov, 06 Nov, 07 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 630 km/s at 03/2209Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 03/2125Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 03/2105Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5870 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (05 Nov), quiet to active levels on day two (06 Nov) and unsettled levels on day three (07 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 05 Nov-07 Nov
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Nov 118
Predicted 05 Nov-07 Nov 120/125/125
90 Day Mean 04 Nov 130
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Nov 016/028
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Nov 013/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Nov-07 Nov 014/020-012/015-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Nov-07 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/35/25
Minor Storm 25/20/10
Major-severe storm 05/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/20
Minor Storm 25/25/30
Major-severe storm 60/50/35
Space Weather
