Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 304 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Oct 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.

The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 31/1331Z from Region 3135 (N27E25). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low on days one, two, and three (01 Nov, 02 Nov, 03 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 555 km/s at 31/0522Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 31/1906Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 31/1428Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4923 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (01 Nov, 02 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (03 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 01 Nov-03 Nov
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Oct 128
Predicted 01 Nov-03 Nov 130/132/134
90 Day Mean 31 Oct 130

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Oct 086/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Oct 012/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Nov-03 Nov 015/018-011/012-008/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Nov-03 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/35/15
Minor Storm 20/10/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/25
Major-severe storm 55/45/25