Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 303 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Oct 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.

The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 30/1451Z from Region 3130 (S24W84). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low on days one, two, and three (31 Oct, 01 Nov, 02 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 585 km/s at 30/0345Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 30/0013Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 29/2213Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3715 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (31 Oct, 01 Nov, 02 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 31 Oct-02 Nov
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Oct 131
Predicted 31 Oct-02 Nov 130/130/130
90 Day Mean 30 Oct 129

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Oct 094/024
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Oct 009/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Oct-02 Nov 013/015-015/018-011/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Oct-02 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/35/20
Minor Storm 15/15/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/30/25
Major-severe storm 50/50/30