Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 302 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Oct 2022
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 29/0956Z from Region 3130 (S24W71). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low on days one, two, and three (30 Oct, 31 Oct, 01 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 614 km/s at 29/0242Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 29/0017Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 29/0021Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1040 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (30 Oct), quiet to active levels on day two (31 Oct) and unsettled to active levels on day three (01 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 30 Oct-01 Nov
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Oct 134
Predicted 30 Oct-01 Nov 132/130/130
90 Day Mean 29 Oct 129
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Oct 090/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Oct 019/027
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Oct-01 Nov 016/020-013/015-014/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Oct-01 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/30/35
Minor Storm 30/15/15
Major-severe storm 10/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/30
Major-severe storm 65/50/50
