Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 3 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jan 2023
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 03/1036Z. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (04 Jan, 05 Jan, 06 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 456 km/s at 03/0701Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 03/1723Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 03/0417Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4067 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and two (04 Jan, 05 Jan) and quiet to active levels on day three (06 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 04 Jan-06 Jan
Class M 35/35/35
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Jan 149
Predicted 04 Jan-06 Jan 148/148/148
90 Day Mean 03 Jan 135
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jan 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jan 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jan-06 Jan 014/020-014/018-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jan-06 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/35/30
Minor Storm 25/25/10
Major-severe storm 05/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor Storm 25/25/30
Major-severe storm 60/60/40
space weather
