Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 298 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Oct 2022
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 25/1903Z from Region 3133 (N26E73). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (26 Oct, 27 Oct, 28 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 497 km/s at 24/2109Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 269 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (26 Oct), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (27 Oct) and quiet to active levels on day three (28 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 26 Oct-28 Oct
Class M 05/05/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Oct 116
Predicted 26 Oct-28 Oct 116/114/112
90 Day Mean 25 Oct 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Oct 204/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Oct 006/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Oct-28 Oct 005/005-006/008-009/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Oct-28 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/15/25
Minor Storm 01/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/25/30
Major-severe storm 15/25/40
Space Weather
