Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 297 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Oct 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.

The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 24/0802Z from Region 3126 (S10W51). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (25 Oct, 26 Oct, 27 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 593 km/s at 23/2136Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 23/2219Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 24/0043Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 103 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (25 Oct) and quiet levels on days two and three (26 Oct, 27 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 25 Oct-27 Oct
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Oct 115
Predicted 25 Oct-27 Oct 115/115/115
90 Day Mean 24 Oct 127

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Oct 139/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Oct 009/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Oct-27 Oct 008/008-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Oct-27 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/10/10
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 25/20/15

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