Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 293 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Oct 2022
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 20/1653Z from Region 3122 (N26W92). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (21 Oct, 22 Oct, 23 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 488 km/s at 20/1733Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 20/1145Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 20/1217Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1290 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (21 Oct, 22 Oct, 23 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 21 Oct-23 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Oct 116
Predicted 21 Oct-23 Oct 115/115/120
90 Day Mean 20 Oct 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Oct 002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Oct 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Oct-23 Oct 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Oct-23 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/20
Minor Storm 15/20/20
Major-severe storm 15/10/10
space weather
