Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 292 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Oct 2023
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 19/1400Z. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low on days one, two, and three (20 Oct, 21 Oct, 22 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 419 km/s at 19/0201Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 19/0103Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 19/0555Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 118 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (20 Oct), quiet to active levels on day two (21 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (22 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 20 Oct-22 Oct
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Oct 129
Predicted 20 Oct-22 Oct 128/130/132
90 Day Mean 19 Oct 156
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Oct 008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Oct 010/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Oct-22 Oct 015/022-010/014-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Oct-22 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/30/25
Minor Storm 30/10/10
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/15/15
Minor Storm 20/25/25
Major-severe storm 65/40/35
Space weather
