Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 292 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Oct 2022
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 18/2146Z from Region 3124 (S34W68). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (20 Oct, 21 Oct, 22 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 516 km/s at 18/2115Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 18/2213Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 19/0428Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 913 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (20 Oct), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (21 Oct) and quiet levels on day three (22 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 20 Oct-22 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Oct 113
Predicted 20 Oct-22 Oct 110/110/110
90 Day Mean 19 Oct 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Oct 0NA/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Oct 006/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Oct-22 Oct 012/012-007/010-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Oct-22 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/15/10
Minor Storm 10/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 30/25/20
Major-severe storm 40/25/10
Space weather
