Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 291 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Oct 2022
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 18/0740Z from Region 3124 (S34W68). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (19 Oct, 20 Oct, 21 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 577 km/s at 18/0336Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 18/0322Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 18/0450Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 707 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (19 Oct), quiet to active levels on day two (20 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (21 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 19 Oct-21 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Oct 114
Predicted 19 Oct-21 Oct 115/110/110
90 Day Mean 18 Oct 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Oct 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Oct 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Oct-21 Oct 006/005-012/012-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Oct-21 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/30/15
Minor Storm 01/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/30/25
Major-severe storm 15/40/25
Space weather
