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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 29 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jan 2023

By Keith Cowing
Status Report
NOAA SWPC
January 29, 2023
Filed under , , ,
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 29 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jan 2023
space weather
NOAA SWPC

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.

The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 29/0012Z. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (30 Jan, 31 Jan, 01 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 544 km/s at 28/2140Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 29/0246Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 29/1238Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 606 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (30 Jan, 31 Jan, 01 Feb).

III. Event probabilities 30 Jan-01 Feb
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Jan 137
Predicted 30 Jan-01 Feb 140/140/135
90 Day Mean 29 Jan 152

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jan 008/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Jan 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Jan-01 Feb 006/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jan-01 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/10

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