Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 29 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jan 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.

The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 29/0012Z. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (30 Jan, 31 Jan, 01 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 544 km/s at 28/2140Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 29/0246Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 29/1238Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 606 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (30 Jan, 31 Jan, 01 Feb).

III. Event probabilities 30 Jan-01 Feb
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Jan 137
Predicted 30 Jan-01 Feb 140/140/135
90 Day Mean 29 Jan 152

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jan 008/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Jan 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Jan-01 Feb 006/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jan-01 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/10

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