Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 289 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Oct 2023
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at 16/1606Z. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (17 Oct, 18 Oct, 19 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 397 km/s at 15/2123Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 124 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (17 Oct, 18 Oct, 19 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 17 Oct-19 Oct
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Oct 144
Predicted 17 Oct-19 Oct 145/145/150
90 Day Mean 16 Oct 157
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Oct 002/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Oct 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Oct-19 Oct 011/012-010/012-013/016
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Oct-19 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/35/35
Minor Storm 05/10/20
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/10
Minor Storm 20/30/30
Major-severe storm 25/45/50
space weather
