Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 288 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Oct 2023
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 15/1633Z from Region 3464 (N04W06). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (16 Oct, 17 Oct, 18 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 497 km/s at 14/2103Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 136 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (16 Oct) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (17 Oct, 18 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 16 Oct-18 Oct
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Oct 145
Predicted 16 Oct-18 Oct 145/140/135
90 Day Mean 15 Oct 158
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Oct 006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Oct 006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Oct-18 Oct 008/005-011/012-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Oct-18 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/30/35
Minor Storm 01/10/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/10
Minor Storm 20/25/25
Major-severe storm 15/35/50
space weather
