Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 287 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Oct 2023
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at 14/0515Z from Region 3460 (S10W57). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (15 Oct, 16 Oct, 17 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 548 km/s at 14/0202Z. Total IMF reached 16 nT at 13/2115Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at 13/2252Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 135 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (15 Oct), quiet levels on day two (16 Oct) and quiet to active levels on day three (17 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 15 Oct-17 Oct
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Oct 148
Predicted 15 Oct-17 Oct 145/145/140
90 Day Mean 14 Oct 158
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Oct 011/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Oct 008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Oct-17 Oct 008/008-005/005-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Oct-17 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/10/30
Minor Storm 05/01/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/20/25
Major-severe storm 30/15/35
space weather
