Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 287 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Oct 2022
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 14/0944Z from Region 3112 (N23W92). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day one (15 Oct) and likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three (16 Oct, 17 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 489 km/s at 14/2046Z. Total IMF reached 18 nT at 14/1340Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -14 nT at 14/0828Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2335 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (15 Oct), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (16 Oct) and quiet levels on day three (17 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 15 Oct-17 Oct
Class M 25/15/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 05/05/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Oct 121
Predicted 15 Oct-17 Oct 118/115/110
90 Day Mean 14 Oct 128
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Oct 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Oct 014/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Oct-17 Oct 010/012-008/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Oct-17 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/25/10
Minor Storm 10/10/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/25/15
Major-severe storm 45/35/15
Space weather
