- Status Report
- Nov 26, 2022
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 286 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Oct 2022
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 13/0019Z from Region 3112 (N23W80). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one and two (14 Oct, 15 Oct) and expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day three (16 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 448 km/s at 13/2010Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 13/1939Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 13/1740Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4331 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (14 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (15 Oct, 16 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 14 Oct-16 Oct
Class M 25/25/15
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Oct 130
Predicted 14 Oct-16 Oct 130/120/115
90 Day Mean 13 Oct 129
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Oct 004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Oct 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Oct-16 Oct 006/005-007/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Oct-16 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 01/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 20/25/25
Major-severe storm 10/35/35