Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 285 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Oct 2023
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 12/0458Z from Region 3451 (N16, L=304). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (13 Oct, 14 Oct, 15 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 352 km/s at 12/1646Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 12/2003Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 11/2223Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 263 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (13 Oct), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (14 Oct) and quiet levels on day three (15 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 13 Oct-15 Oct
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Oct 157
Predicted 13 Oct-15 Oct 156/155/155
90 Day Mean 12 Oct 159
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Oct 003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Oct 006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Oct-15 Oct 009/012-008/010-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Oct-15 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/25/20
Minor Storm 15/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 50/40/30
Space Weather
