Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 285 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Oct 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.

The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 11/2121Z from Region 3119 (N28W18). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (13 Oct, 14 Oct, 15 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed averaged ~375 km/s. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6216 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (13 Oct, 14 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (15 Oct). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (13 Oct, 14 Oct, 15 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 13 Oct-15 Oct
Class M 45/45/45
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Oct 141
Predicted 13 Oct-15 Oct 140/140/140
90 Day Mean 12 Oct 129

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Oct 007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Oct 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Oct-15 Oct 006/005-006/005-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Oct-15 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/25
Minor Storm 05/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/15
Minor Storm 20/20/30
Major-severe storm 10/10/30

Space Weather