Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 284 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Oct 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at 11/0937Z from Region 3451 (N16W86). There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (12 Oct, 13 Oct, 14 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 447 km/s at 11/1055Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 11/0244Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 11/0741Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 219 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (12 Oct, 13 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (14 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 12 Oct-14 Oct
Class M 35/25/25
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Oct 158
Predicted 12 Oct-14 Oct 158/156/155
90 Day Mean 11 Oct 159

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Oct NA/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Oct 005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Oct-14 Oct 011/012-009/012-008/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Oct-14 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/35/25
Minor Storm 15/15/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 50/50/40

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