Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 283 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Oct 2023
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at 10/1217Z from Region 3452 (N09W80). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (11 Oct, 12 Oct, 13 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 379 km/s at 10/2007Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 10/0929Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at 10/1514Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 269 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (11 Oct) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (12 Oct, 13 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 11 Oct-13 Oct
Class M 35/35/25
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Oct 164
Predicted 11 Oct-13 Oct 160/160/158
90 Day Mean 10 Oct 160
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Oct NA/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Oct 007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Oct-13 Oct 008/010-011/012-009/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Oct-13 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/35/35
Minor Storm 05/15/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 20/25/25
Major-severe storm 20/50/50
space weather
