Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 282 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Oct 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at 09/1911Z from Region 3451 (N17W60). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (10 Oct, 11 Oct, 12 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 511 km/s at 09/1632Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 09/1518Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 09/1512Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 276 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (10 Oct, 11 Oct, 12 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 10 Oct-12 Oct
Class M 35/35/25
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Oct 166
Predicted 10 Oct-12 Oct 156/156/150
90 Day Mean 09 Oct 160

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Oct NA/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Oct 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Oct-12 Oct 007/008-008/010-009/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Oct-12 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/20/25
Minor Storm 05/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/20/25
Major-severe storm 25/20/35

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