Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 281 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Oct 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at 08/0340Z from Region 3460 (S10E23). There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (09 Oct, 10 Oct, 11 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 508 km/s at 08/0048Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 08/1839Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 08/0611Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 273 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (09 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (10 Oct, 11 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 09 Oct-11 Oct
Class M 35/35/35
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Oct 157
Predicted 09 Oct-11 Oct 158/160/158
90 Day Mean 08 Oct 161

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Oct NA/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Oct 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Oct-11 Oct 005/005-009/010-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Oct-11 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/20/15
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/25/20
Major-severe storm 15/35/20

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