Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 281 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Oct 2022
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at 08/0040Z from Region 3112 (N22W16). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (09 Oct, 10 Oct, 11 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 553 km/s at 08/1722Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 08/0410Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 08/1602Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3556 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (09 Oct, 10 Oct) and quiet levels on day three (11 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 09 Oct-11 Oct
Class M 50/50/50
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Oct 157
Predicted 09 Oct-11 Oct 156/156/156
90 Day Mean 08 Oct 130
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Oct 012/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Oct 011/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Oct-11 Oct 009/010-008/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Oct-11 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/20/10
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 25/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/15
Major-severe storm 15/20/10
Space Weather
