Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 280 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Oct 2023
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 07/1806Z from Region 3460 (S11E35). There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (08 Oct, 09 Oct, 10 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 404 km/s at 06/2313Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 06/2218Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 07/1943Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 324 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (08 Oct, 09 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (10 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 08 Oct-10 Oct
Class M 35/35/35
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Oct 157
Predicted 08 Oct-10 Oct 156/158/160
90 Day Mean 07 Oct 161
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Oct 007/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Oct 005/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Oct-10 Oct 005/005-005/005-009/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Oct-10 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/20
Minor Storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/25
Major-severe storm 15/15/35
space weather
