Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 280 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Oct 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours.

The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 07/1444Z from Region 3116 (N29E00). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (08 Oct, 09 Oct, 10 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 587 km/s at 07/1826Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 07/1221Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 07/1204Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2903 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (08 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (09 Oct, 10 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 08 Oct-10 Oct
Class M 55/55/55
Class X 15/15/15
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Oct 160
Predicted 08 Oct-10 Oct 160/158/156
90 Day Mean 07 Oct 130

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Oct 014/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Oct 015/017
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Oct-10 Oct 009/012-009/010-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Oct-10 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/25/20
Minor Storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/25/15
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/15/20

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