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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 28 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jan 2023

By Keith Cowing
Status Report
NOAA SWPC
January 28, 2023
Filed under , , ,
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 28 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jan 2023
space weather
NOAA SWPC

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.

The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 28/1201Z from Region 3200 (N21W15). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (29 Jan, 30 Jan, 31 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 572 km/s at 28/1212Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 27/2320Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 27/2306Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 588 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (29 Jan, 30 Jan, 31 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 29 Jan-31 Jan
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Jan 138
Predicted 29 Jan-31 Jan 135/145/145
90 Day Mean 28 Jan 152

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jan 006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Jan 009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Jan-31 Jan 006/005-006/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jan-31 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/10

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