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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 279 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Oct 2022

By Keith Cowing
Press Release
NOAA SWPC
October 6, 2022
Filed under , , ,
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 279 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Oct 2022
space weather
NOAA SWPC

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.

The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 06/0202Z from Region 3112 (N22E09). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class or X-class flares on day one (07 Oct) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days two and three (08 Oct, 09 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 542 km/s at 06/1847Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 06/0850Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 06/1126Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2404 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (07 Oct, 09 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (08 Oct). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (07 Oct, 08 Oct, 09 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 07 Oct-09 Oct
Class M 50/45/45
Class X 25/20/20
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Oct 156
Predicted 07 Oct-09 Oct 156/154/154
90 Day Mean 06 Oct 130

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Oct 011/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Oct 013/017
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Oct-09 Oct 009/014-009/010-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Oct-09 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/25/35
Minor Storm 15/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 30/25/25
Major-severe storm 30/20/25

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